On 15 March, 2026, SADF held a podcast called “Wars Beyond Borders: The Impact of Pakistan-Afghanistan and Iran-US Conflicts on South Asia” with Dr. Indira Boutier.
There follows a summary of the discussion:
Wars Beyond Borders: How Two Conflicts Are Reshaping South Asia
South Asia today finds itself caught between two escalating conflicts unfolding beyond its immediate borders. On one side, the growing confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan threatens to transform the region’s western frontier into a sustained interstate conflict. On the other, the US–Israel war against Iran has destabilized the Gulf, a region deeply intertwined with South Asia’s energy security, migration flows, and trade routes.
Together, these crises are producing what analysts describe as a form of “strategic compression”: military instability on land converging with economic vulnerability at sea. For South Asian governments, the result is a complex landscape where security threats, humanitarian crises, and geopolitical pressures intersect simultaneously.
Pakistan–Afghanistan: From Managed Instability to Open Conflict
The most immediate regional crisis is the escalation of hostilities between Pakistan and Afghanistan. In February 2026, Taliban forces launched attacks on Pakistani military bases, prompting retaliatory Pakistani airstrikes on locations including Kabul, Kandahar, and Paktia. Pakistan’s defense minister subsequently declared that the two countries were now in “open war.”
This development marks a major shift in Pakistan’s long-standing approach to Afghanistan. For decades, Islamabad attempted to manage the frontier indirectly, relying on influence over militant groups and political factions to shape developments across the border while avoiding direct interstate confrontation.
That model appears to be collapsing. Since the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, Pakistan has faced increasing attacks from the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which Islamabad claims operates from Afghan territory. Pakistan’s strikes on Afghan cities therefore signal a transition from proxy-based influence to direct military confrontation.
If this trajectory continues, the Afghanistan–Pakistan frontier could evolve from a zone of insurgent violence into a prolonged interstate conflict, raising the risk of a war of attrition between the two countries.
Why This Matters
- Transformation of the regional security landscape: The frontier may shift from proxy conflict to sustained interstate warfare. This would fundamentally reshape South Asia’s western security environment.
- Expansion of insurgent networks: The conflict intersects with militant groups such as the TTP and Baloch separatists. Escalation could destabilize Pakistan’s western provinces.
- Risk of prolonged conflict: If cross-border strikes become normalized, the frontier could evolve into a permanent low-intensity interstate war.
Afghanistan: Humanitarian Crisis and Gender Apartheid
The conflict is intensifying an already severe humanitarian crisis inside Afghanistan. Nearly half of the country’s population now requires humanitarian assistance, while millions face severe food insecurity and economic collapse.
Cross-border fighting has worsened displacement, while the return of Afghan refugees from Pakistan places additional pressure on an already fragile social system.
Women and children are particularly affected. Taliban restrictions on female employment and education have limited humanitarian access and reduced the capacity of aid organizations to deliver assistance.
In 2026, the Taliban introduced a new Law on the Propagation of Virtue and Prevention of Vice, which further restricts women’s public participation by prohibiting women’s voices in public spaces, requiring male guardianship, and maintaining bans on secondary and higher education for girls.
These policies have intensified international debate over whether Afghanistan’s legal framework now constitutes gender apartheid.
Why This Matters
- Deepening humanitarian emergency: Afghanistan’s fragile economy and ongoing conflict are pushing millions toward extreme poverty and hunger.
- Systemic gender discrimination: Taliban policies are institutionalizing the exclusion of women from public life, raising major international legal concerns.
- Regional spillover risks: Worsening humanitarian conditions increase the likelihood of migration flows, trafficking, and long-term instability across the region.
The Gulf and the Iran War: Energy Shock for South Asia
At the same time, the escalating confrontation between Iran and the US–Israel alliance has destabilized the wider Middle East and disrupted global energy markets.
South Asian economies are deeply connected to the Gulf through energy imports, labor migration, and maritime trade routes. Instability in the region therefore has immediate consequences for the region’s economic stability.
The conflict has already disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy transit corridors. Roughly 20 percent of global oil consumption normally passes through this narrow waterway, making it a key chokepoint in the global economy.
Following the escalation, oil prices surged more than 40 percent above pre-war levels, placing heavy pressure on energy-importing economies across South Asia.
Why This Matters
- Energy price shocks: Rising oil prices directly increase inflation and fiscal pressure in South Asian economies dependent on energy imports.
- Threats to global shipping routes: Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could destabilize international energy markets and maritime trade.
- Economic vulnerability: Countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka face heightened economic risks due to their dependence on imported fuel.
South Asian Societies: Migration and Domestic Pressure
Conflicts in Afghanistan and the Gulf are also producing significant domestic ripple effects across South Asia.
The Gulf region hosts approximately 15–17 million South Asian migrant workers, including more than 8 million Indians along with large populations from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal.
These workers play a crucial role in regional economies by sending billions of dollars in remittances back home. However, escalating violence in the Gulf has already affected migrant communities, with reports of casualties and travel disruptions due to airspace closures.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions have triggered protests and political mobilization in several South Asian cities, including Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad, Lucknow, and Srinagar.
These developments highlight how external conflicts can quickly translate into domestic political pressures and sectarian tensions within South Asian societies.
Why This Matters
- Humanitarian vulnerability: Millions of migrant workers could be exposed to conflict in the Gulf while lacking the resources to evacuate quickly.
- Economic dependence on remittances: Disruptions to migrant labor flows could have major economic consequences for South Asian economies.
- Domestic political tensions: External conflicts risk fueling sectarian polarization and political mobilization within South Asian states.
Diplomacy in a Fragmented World
South Asian governments now face a delicate diplomatic balancing act. They must respond to humanitarian crises and violations of international law without becoming entangled in the rivalries of major powers.
One approach is to adopt principled neutrality, condemning violations of international humanitarian law regardless of which actor is responsible.
Another is to rely on multilateral diplomacy, working through institutions such as the United Nations or the Non-Aligned Movement to address humanitarian concerns collectively.
Ultimately, defending international humanitarian law consistently—without selective application—may be essential for preserving the credibility of global norms in an increasingly fragmented international system.
Why This Matters
- Maintaining strategic autonomy: Neutral, law-based diplomacy allows South Asian states to navigate great-power competition without choosing sides.
- Protecting humanitarian norms: Consistent support for international humanitarian law strengthens civilian protection during armed conflicts.
- Strengthening regional credibility: Multilateral engagement enables smaller states to influence global debates while avoiding geopolitical confrontation.
Conclusion
The conflicts unfolding across Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Gulf illustrate how wars today rarely remain confined to a single region. Their effects travel quickly through energy markets, migration systems, and political networks.
For South Asia, the challenge is no longer simply managing internal security threats. It is navigating a world where external conflicts increasingly shape the region’s economic stability, humanitarian landscape, and diplomatic choices.
Understanding these interconnected pressures will be essential for shaping South Asia’s response to an increasingly turbulent global order.
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Disclaimer: This text was created with the help of SADF’s Custom GPT. It summarizes our podcast content for quick reading.
