- Afghanistan
The fall of Kabul at the hands of the Taliban was euphorically celebrated by Pakistan. The Prime Minister of the time announced stridently that Afghans had “broken the shackles of slavery,” while the normally circumspect chief of the Pakistani military secret services went public in Kabul celebrating what was described as its greatest victory.
After all, the Afghan Taliban were created, financed, armed and supported by Pakistan ever since the 1990s. The country had been able to play cat and mouse with them in the wake of September 11, just pretending to go after the Taliban sufficiently to justify the continuation of US support, while supporting them enough to ensure they would not be defeated.
The Taliban were “our men” in Kabul — so the Pakistani establishment, and nearly all of the Western intelligentsia, thought.
That was not to be.
Clashes have not ceased to increase during these almost five years and are now on the brink of a full war. Last week, the Pakistani Air Force conducted heavy bombardment on the Afghan side of the Durand Line, killing dozens of “terrorists” — if one follows Islamabad’s account — or “civilians, including women and children” — if one follows Kabul’s version.
Kabul responded with heavy bombardment of Pakistani positions south of the Durand Line.
Full-scale war is on the horizon.
- Balochistan
The war with Balochistan is almost as old as Pakistan itself. Pakistan did not recognize the Khanate of Kalat within Balochistan, and a war began one year after Pakistan’s creation. It has had periods of greater and lesser intensity, but it has never stopped.
In the latest episode, which took place on January 31 and February 1, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) stormed major cities in the rebel province — controlling parts of them temporarily — and attacked military facilities, causing casualties and taking prisoners.
Pakistan responded in the manner it has used in the past: accompanying military operations with massive, undeclared arrests and assassinations, including women and children, as well as many Baloch students in major Pakistani cities such as Karachi and Islamabad. Even non-Baloch lawyers who came to their defense were reportedly targeted this time.
The scene is not new — but it is far uglier than before.
- Imran Khan
Imran Khan, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, believed his popularity would allow him to express some independence from the military establishment. He learned at his own expense who is truly in command in the country.
Ejected through political manoeuvres by the military establishment, he was barred from running in elections, arrested, and sentenced on a series of controversial charges.
Despite his frail health, there is no indication that his jailers are willing to release him or ease the harsh conditions of his detention.
The war on Imran Khan is, in essence, a war on the democratic aspirations of Pakistan.
Why This Matters
Pakistan now faces simultaneous confrontations:
- Escalating cross-border hostilities with Afghanistan
- A deepening insurgency in Balochistan
- An internal political legitimacy crisis centered on civil-military imbalance
The convergence of these fronts increases the risks of regional instability, refugee flows, economic collapse, and further militarization in South Asia.
What Can Be Done?
For Policymakers
- Demand transparent investigations into cross-border strikes and civilian harm.
- Condition security assistance on measurable progress in civil-military accountability.
- Support UN mechanisms monitoring arbitrary detention and political repression.
For Civil Society
- Advocate for the protection of lawyers and human rights defenders.
- Support independent journalism covering Balochistan and Afghan border dynamics.
- Promote dialogue on civilian supremacy and constitutional governance.
For International Partners
- Encourage de-escalation along the Durand Line.
- Prioritize diplomatic engagement over securitized narratives.
- Monitor democratic backsliding and political imprisonment cases.
Further Reading & References
Afghanistan–Pakistan Tensions
- International Crisis Group – Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations
https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-asia/pakistan - United States Institute of Peace – Taliban and Regional Dynamics
https://www.usip.org/afghanistan
Durand Line Background
- Encyclopaedia Britannica – Durand Line
https://www.britannica.com/place/Durand-Line
Balochistan Conflict
- Human Rights Watch – Pakistan Reports
https://www.hrw.org/asia/pakistan - Amnesty International – Enforced Disappearances in Pakistan
https://www.amnesty.org/en/location/asia-and-the-pacific/south-asia/pakistan/
Imran Khan & Civil-Military Relations
- Carnegie Endowment – Pakistan Politics
https://carnegieendowment.org/programs/south-asia/pakistan - BBC News – Pakistan Political Crisis
https://www.bbc.com/news/topics/c34kz2kkywkt
SADF | South Asia Democratic Forum
Brussels-based think tank promoting democracy, rule of law, and regional stability in South Asia.
Paulo Casaca
Paulo Casaca is the Founder and Executive Director of the ‘South Asia Democratic Forum’; founder of the international co-operation association registered in Brussels ARCHumankind, ‘Alliance to Renew Co-operation among Humankind’. Founder and senior partner of the consultancy company on sustainable development registered in Brussels, Lessmeansmore, Land and Energy Sustainable Systems (2010-2020).